The US Navy’s capture of the Iranian ship Touska amid a fragile ceasefire has pushed Strait of Hormuz tensions back to the forefront. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian sanctions relief in April dropped to 40.5%, down from 62% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands fell sharply, with odds now at 40.5%. Daily volume is $6,018 in USDC, and it takes just $816 to move the price 5 percentage points. The 6-point drop in a single day suggests traders are pricing in escalation over resolution.
WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April remains a long shot at 1.4% YES. Daily USDC volume is $704, and $1,655 moves the odds 5 points. Traders clearly aren’t expecting a rapid oil price spike, even with a naval seizure in the strait.
The market for the UK sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 sits at 8.5%, down from 12% yesterday. With 12 days remaining, daily USDC volume of $1,412 means this market will move fast on any fresh military signals.
Why it matters
The Touska seizure happened during what was supposed to be a ceasefire period, which makes the sanctions relief question harder to call. The sanctions relief market crossing below 50% for the first time puts diplomatic resolution and military escalation at roughly even odds. The thin liquidity across all three markets means new developments can move prices quickly.
What to watch
Statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or official confirmation of warship deployments would directly affect the Hormuz transit market. Any shift in US-Iran diplomatic communications, particularly around the Touska incident, could swing the sanctions relief odds in either direction. At 40.5¢, a YES position on sanctions relief pays 2.08x if a deal materializes before May.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 1.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
