He Lifeng’s comments on US-China cooperation have pushed “Will Trump visit China by May 31?” to 83.5% YES, up from 88% yesterday.
The statement comes amid active diplomacy between the two countries, suggesting a warmer climate for a Trump visit. The May 31 market has climbed from 76% a week ago. By comparison, the April 30 market sits at just 0.9%.
The May 31 market has $64,623 in daily USDC volume. It takes $10,680 to move the price five points, which points to strong trader conviction. A 1-point spike at 4:08 PM shows active engagement. The June 30 market is at 88.5% YES, down slightly from 94% yesterday.
The cooperative tone from China changes the diplomatic calculus. Buying YES at 83.5¢ pays 1.11x if Trump makes the trip by May 31. The market is pricing in a concrete catalyst within the next month.
Watch for announcements from the White House or Chinese Foreign Ministry. Confirmation of a summit date or Trump’s departure would likely push these odds higher.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 83.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 88.5% | — | — | Trade → |
