The U.S. Navy has deployed uncrewed underwater vehicles to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The chance of 80 ships transiting the Strait by April 30 sits at 25% YES, down from 51% yesterday.
The Navy is using MK-18 Mod 2 Kingfish vehicles, a shift toward automated mine-clearing that reduces human risk. The transit market prices in the possibility that a cleared lane could restore commercial traffic, though the sharp drop from 51% suggests traders remain skeptical about the April 30 deadline.
The U.S. escorts through Hormuz market moved in the opposite direction, with odds at 19% YES, up from 18% yesterday. Traders appear to read the mine-clearing deployment as a precursor to escort operations. Further IRGC escalations could push these odds higher.
Volume on the Hormuz transit market is $16,360 in USDC traded daily. The order book depth shows it takes $797 to move the price 5 points, meaning moderately sized trades can swing odds quickly. A 10-point drop hit at 5:48 PM, showing how thin the liquidity is.
Buying YES at 25¢ offers a potential 4.5x return if 80 ships transit in the next 12 days. That bet depends on successful mine clearance and shipping operators deciding the lane is safe enough to use.
Watch for updates from U.S. Central Command on mine-clearing progress and any IRGC statements that could change shipping operators’ calculations.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 25% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 19.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 19% | — | — | Trade → |