Iran fired on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting President Trump to threaten retaliation. The probability of a US-Iran ceasefire announcement by April 21 is now 99.7% YES, up from 8% yesterday.
Market reaction
Odds for a ceasefire announcement by April 21 more than doubled in 24 hours following Iran’s actions and Trump’s retaliatory rhetoric. With three days until resolution, traders are pricing in a growing chance that diplomatic efforts collapse.
The market for Trump’s weekly posts is also active, given his tendency toward aggressive language on Truth Social. The likelihood of him using strong terms this week has increased, though no specific odds are available.
Why it matters
Daily trading volume for the ceasefire market is $3,485, with just $498 needed to move the price 5 percentage points. This is a thin market where moderate trades can shift odds significantly. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 3-point spike at 11:12 AM, likely driven by Trump’s “no more Mr. Nice Guy” threat.
The current ceasefire is fragile, and the Strait of Hormuz incident shows how quickly conditions can change.
What to watch
At 18¢, a YES share in the ceasefire market pays $1 if broken by April 21, a 5.56x return. That bet requires believing in an imminent breakdown within three days.
Key signals: Trump’s Truth Social posts and statements from White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. Any confirmation of ceasefire violations would likely push odds higher.
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