The US Department of Energy has issued oil loans from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to nine companies, including BP, Energy Transfer Crude Marketing, and ExxonMobil. The market for crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 sits at 0% YES.
Market reaction
The loans are designed to stabilize oil supplies during the ongoing conflict with Iran, as part of a broader agreement with the International Energy Agency. More oil entering the market increases supply and puts downward pressure on prices. With 75 days left until the end of June, traders are pricing in a 15% expected move, betting these measures will keep prices below $90. The ceasefire market, which could shift oil prices significantly, shows no resolution yet.
There is no recorded volume in the crude oil market, suggesting traders are waiting for further developments. The thin order book means any large orders could move the price substantially.
Why it matters
The loan program requires borrowers to return premium barrels, so it aims to mitigate supply disruptions without taxpayer cost. This could stabilize refinery operations, but the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran remains unresolved. At 0¢, a YES share pays $1 if crude hits $90, a long shot given current supply conditions.
What to watch
Watch for announcements from the US Energy Information Administration and any changes in OPEC+ production strategies. Either could move price expectations in the coming weeks.
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