US Central Command Chief Brad Cooper has confirmed full enforcement of a maritime blockade on Iranian ports. The market on Trump announcing the blockade’s lifting by May 31 sits at 90% YES.
Cooper’s statement directly affects the US Blockade of Hormuz market. Odds for the blockade being lifted by April 19 are at 23% YES, meaning traders see a near-term de-escalation as unlikely. The biggest jump is between April 19 and May 31, a 64-point increase that reflects expectations of a potential catalyst in the coming weeks.
Combined trading volume hit $33,260 in actual USDC over the past 24 hours. It takes $3,730 to move the May 31 market odds by 5 points, a sign of strong liquidity. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 6-point drop in the April 19 market, reinforcing bearish sentiment on an imminent resolution.
Cooper’s comments confirm the US intends to maintain the blockade, which weighs heavily on odds for a quick lifting. At 23¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade ends by April 19, a 5.6x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch the Pentagon’s next briefing and any statements from the Iranian government for shifts in posture. Trump’s rhetoric on social media could also move these markets.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 6 12| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 90% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 2.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 23% | — | — | Trade → |
