Trump announced Iran’s agreement to permit US personnel to collect leftover uranium. The market for “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30” now sits at 44.3% YES, up from 35% just 24 hours ago.
The 4.2-point move suggests traders read Trump’s statement as a concrete step toward a deal, though Iran has not officially confirmed it. A 3-point jump earlier at 5:48 PM accounts for much of the shift. The April 30 deadline is 14 days away, which compresses the window for any formal agreement. Explore the market here.
Daily volume is $65,707 in face value, with $23,824 in actual USDC traded. Depth is moderate: $599 would shift the price by 5 percentage points. A single large order could still move the odds meaningfully, though the current lean is toward a possible agreement.
Trump’s claim remains unverified by Iranian officials, and the market reflects that gap between the statement and any confirmed deal. Buyers at 44.3¢ would see a 2.56x return if resolved YES. That bet requires believing a formal agreement on enrichment can materialize within two weeks.
Signals to watch: official statements from Iranian leaders, any joint US-Iran announcement, IAEA involvement, or a shift in Pakistan-mediated negotiations. Any of these could move the market sharply in either direction.
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Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 44.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 50.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
