Trump predicts a quick resolution with Iran despite hawkish rhetoric. The market for Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 49.5% YES, up from 34% yesterday.
Trump’s comments have pushed the Iranian oil sanction relief in April market to 49.5% YES, a modest bump from 34% a day ago and a more notable rise from 28% a week ago. His remarks suggest a possible willingness to make concessions on oil sanctions, which traders are pricing in as a potential deal sweetener.
The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 30.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. The April 30 market is higher at 43.5%, meaning traders see a better chance for a deal later in the month. The largest expected movement is between April 30 and May 31, with a 21-point jump, suggesting traders anticipate a catalyst in that window.
Daily USDC trading volume for the Iranian oil sanction relief market is $1,975. The cost to move the odds by 5 percentage points is just $330, meaning relatively small capital inflows could shift the market quickly.
Trump’s rhetoric fits a de-escalation narrative, but this could be noise rather than a genuine policy shift. Without concrete actions like an official agreement or sanctions relief, these odds could reverse fast. Buying YES at 49.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 2.78x return, assuming belief in a rapid deal.
Watch for White House announcements or Trump posts on Truth Social confirming negotiations or agreements with Iran. Concrete steps like unfreezing Iranian assets or agreeing to limited uranium enrichment would move these markets sharply.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 49.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 30.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 43.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 71% | — | — | Trade → |
