The US and Iran are negotiating a plan that includes Washington releasing $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. The ceasefire by April 30 market is at 54.5% YES, up from 17% a week ago.
The US-Iran ceasefire odds for April 21 remain low at 5.5% YES, but the April 30 market has doubled in a week. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement by April 30 has risen to 44.9% YES, tracking the frozen funds proposal closely.
In the diplomatic meeting market, the odds of no meeting by June 30 are at 2.1% YES. Traders are pricing in near-certainty that a meeting will happen, consistent with the ongoing indirect discussions.
The ceasefire market saw 24h volume at $2.54M face value, with $699K in actual USDC traded. Large moves are expensive at that liquidity level, suggesting institutional-level participation. The uranium market trades $65K face value daily with $23K actual USDC, meaning relatively small capital can move the price quickly.
The frozen funds and uranium stockpile components are specific, negotiable items, which distinguishes this from earlier vague diplomatic signals. YES shares on the uranium agreement at 44.9¢ pay 2.56x on resolution.
Watch for official confirmations from the White House or Iranian sources, particularly regarding scheduled talks or breakthroughs in Islamabad.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 54.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 65% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 76.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 44.9% | — | — | Trade → |