US interdiction of three Iranian tankers near India and Malaysia has pushed the market for 80 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 down to 6% YES, falling from 17% a day ago and 28% a week ago.
The steep drop tracks traders repricing risk after the US expanded its interception operations beyond the immediate Persian Gulf area. The odds for 10 ships transiting from April 8-12 are also expected to fall as enforcement actions deter transit.
Daily volume is at $2,238 in USDC, but only $946 is needed to move the price by 5 points, making the market vulnerable to large orders. The biggest recent move was a 2-point spike at 10:22 AM, likely from a single trade. Odds sit at 6% across sub-markets with no meaningful term structure variation.
The interceptions near India and Malaysia, far from the Strait of Hormuz itself, suggest the US is widening its enforcement geography rather than concentrating on chokepoint patrols. At 6¢, a YES share pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 16.6x return. That bet requires rapid de-escalation or a diplomatic breakthrough, neither of which has any visible precursor right now.
Watch for statements from Gen. Michael Kurilla on CENTCOM operations and Admiral Brad Cooper’s remarks on enforcement posture. Any signal of changed transit protocols or de-escalation from either the US Navy or IRGC would directly affect these odds.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
⚡ Also Impacted by This Story
