Ian Bremmer claims Trump has lost all leverage in the Iran negotiations. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by April 30 have fallen to 17% YES, down from 26% just 24 hours ago.
The Iranian Demands Trump Agreement market, which covers oil sanctions relief, dropped sharply. Volume is at $7,257 in USDC, with odds falling 9 percentage points in a single day. The order book is thin: just $416 to move the price 5 points, meaning even small trades can swing the market significantly.
The US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market is barely alive. The April 22 contract settled at 0.1% YES. The April 30 contract sits at 15.5%, and the term structure only shows real confidence at the June 30 date, which trades at 62.5% YES. Traders are pricing in a long slog, not a quick deal.
Bremmer’s argument is specific: Iran’s leverage remains intact while Trump’s strategy is faltering. At 17¢, a YES share on oil sanctions relief pays $1 if it resolves, a potential 5.9x return. For that bet to work, you’d need a dramatic turnaround in negotiations within a week.
Watch for Trump’s communications, particularly new statements from the White House or his Truth Social account. Any shift in rhetoric or a surprise concession could move these contracts fast.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 17% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
