U.S. and Iranian forces clashed in southwestern Iran during a U.S. mission to recover a missing F-15E crew member. The “US forces enter Iran by April 30” market now sits at 86% YES, up from 62% just 24 hours ago.
The confirmation of U.S. ground operations inside Iran has shifted market odds significantly. The US forces enter Iran by April 30 market surged to 86% YES, indicating increased trader confidence in further ground operations. The December 31 market also rose to 90% YES, suggesting traders expect a sustained U.S. presence. This escalation, part of Operation Epic Fury, intensifies hostilities, with U.S. and Israeli forces striking over 11,000 Iranian targets.
The chance of a ceasefire by April 7 has dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday. Traders see little chance for a diplomatic resolution amid the conflict. The April 15 market is also low at 6% YES. The bearish sentiment reflects the lack of diplomatic efforts and ongoing military actions.
Trading volumes highlight these moves. The “US forces enter Iran” markets combined for $5,069,224 in USDC traded over 24 hours. The significant order book depth—$84,737 to move 5 points for April 30—indicates strong institutional engagement. In contrast, the “ceasefire” markets saw just $431,402 in USDC traded, with thin liquidity suggesting smaller trader interest.
The ground rescue operation marks a shift from airstrikes to ground tactics, increasing tensions and reducing ceasefire prospects. A YES share at 86¢ for April 30 pays $1 if confirmed, justifying the high odds unless diplomacy unexpectedly advances. Without signs of de-escalation, traders see little upside in betting on peace.
Watch for CENTCOM statements or Pentagon briefings, especially from Secretary Hegseth. Any troop withdrawal or new diplomatic engagements could swing these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 86.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 90.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Us Forces Enter Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 86.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 90.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
