Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and recent missile launches have dashed hopes for a ceasefire by April 7, with odds plummeting to 1% from 12% last week.
The April 7 market is nearly inactive with odds at 1% YES and only 4 days left. The April 15 market has dropped to 6% YES from 22% last week, signaling waning optimism for a quick ceasefire. The April 30 market shows 18% YES, down from 40%, indicating skepticism about a short-term resolution.
Iran’s blockade and missile strikes have intensified tensions, making a ceasefire unlikely. The April 7 market is at 1%, and the April 15 market is at 6%. Traders see a potential catalyst by late April, as shown by the 19-point increase from April 30 to May 31.
Daily trading volume is $431,402 in USDC, but market depth varies. Moving the April 7 market by 5 points requires $12,352, showing how a single trade could significantly impact the market. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike for April 30, reflecting traders’ quick reactions to geopolitical events.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is a significant barrier to a ceasefire. Iran’s blockade complicates negotiations, making an April resolution unlikely. A YES share at 1¢ for April 7 offers a 99x return if a ceasefire occurs, but this would require a sudden diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for mediation efforts from the Sultan of Oman and Qatar, and monitor any CENTCOM statements or changes in US diplomatic language for shifts in ceasefire odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |