The US has added a second aircraft carrier to its Strait of Hormuz blockade and turned around 34 ships. The market on Iran targeting ships by April 30 sits at 21% YES, up from 19% yesterday.
The escalation has had little effect on related markets. The odds of the UK sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz remain at 1.8% YES, consistent with other nations staying out of the area as US operations expand.
The expanded blockade is part of “Operation Epic Fury.” Beyond turning around 34 ships, the US has seized two Iranian vessels, pointing to a broader clampdown on maritime traffic the US considers contrary to its interests.
Trading volume on the Iran ship-targeting market hit $5,118 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The market is thin enough that a $101 trade moved the odds 5 points, producing a 10-point spike at 11:40 AM. That kind of sensitivity reflects how little liquidity is needed to swing prices on a low-volume contract. A YES share at 21¢ pays $1 if Iran targets ships by end of April, a 4.76x return.
Two aircraft carriers in the region raise the probability of further military action, which could provoke Iranian responses and move these contracts sharply.
Watch for UK Ministry of Defence announcements and allied military deployment updates, which would directly affect both markets.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 20.6% | — | — | Trade → |
