Ukraine plans to deploy ships from the UK to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Times. The market for Trump announcing the blockade is lifted by May 31 sits at 79.5% YES, with 41 days remaining.
Market reaction
The May 31 sub-market is where traders are concentrating. Odds moved from 76% a day ago to 79.5% YES, with a 3-point spike at 5:08 PM. Daily volume is at $18,073 in USDC.
Why it matters
Ukrainian and UK involvement adds a new coalition dimension to the blockade standoff. Traders are pricing in the possibility that this international pressure could influence the US stance on lifting the blockade. The jump from 76% to 82.5% in a single day suggests the market reads this as a meaningful development, not routine diplomatic noise.
What to watch
A share at 79.5¢ pays $1 if Trump announces the blockade is lifted by May 31. To justify that price, you’d need to believe this coalition effort, combined with existing diplomatic channels, can move US policy within 41 days. Upcoming statements from the Pentagon or Vice President JD Vance’s delegation in Islamabad could shift odds further. Any confirmation of Iranian attendance at those talks would be particularly significant.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 79.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
