Democracy Forward’s FOIA request for records on Kash Patel’s alleged misconduct has intensified scrutiny. The Patel out by June 30 market sits at 61% YES, up from 30% a week ago.
The June 30 market rose sharply as Democratic pressure on Patel increased. The December 31 market is at 82% YES, up from 60% a week ago, meaning traders price in serious longer-term risk to Patel’s tenure. The April 30 market remains less affected at 19% YES.
Daily volume on this market is $17,572 in USDC. The largest recent price move was a 5-point drop at 7:16 PM, from 66% to 60%. It takes $180 to move the June 30 odds by 5 points, which points to thin enough liquidity that new information could cause sharp swings.
The FOIA request is a credible threat to Patel’s position, particularly given the Democrats’ focus on his alleged behavior. At 61¢, a YES share pays $1 if Patel is out by June 30, a 1.64x return. Buying YES here is a bet that the FOIA request yields damaging results within 71 days.
Watch for any White House or Trump statements on Patel’s status. A public reaffirmation of support or nomination of a replacement could move the market sharply in either direction.
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Epstein Client List Released In 2025 372| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 82% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 18.1% | — | — | Trade → |
