The UK Prime Minister faces a parliamentary vote on the Mandelson vetting inquiry, with the market on Keir Starmer being out by June 30, 2026, at 38% YES, down from 41% yesterday.
Parliamentary figures are set to give evidence in the Mandelson vetting scandal. Starmer Out Timing Predictions show declining confidence in a short-term exit, but December 31, 2026 odds remain at 67.5% YES. The 29-point gap between the June and December contracts suggests traders expect a major catalyst in the second half of the year.
Trading volume hit $29,563 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The market is thin enough that a $998 trade moved odds by 5 points. The largest recent move was a 3-point spike at 4:07 PM.
A YES share at 38¢ pays $1 if Starmer exits by June 30, a potential 2.63x return. That bet requires believing the inquiry produces damaging evidence fast enough to force a departure within weeks, not months.
Watch for statements from Angela Rayner or Wes Streeting; any leadership positioning from either would signal internal party movement. The parliamentary vote and subsequent testimonies are the next concrete events that will move this market.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 67.5% | — | — | Trade → |
