Republicans are pushing to fund the Secret Service following a third assassination attempt on President Trump. The “Trump out as President by June 30” market sits at 4.5% YES, up slightly from 4% yesterday.
The market hasn’t moved dramatically, but the political situation is tense. The Department of Homeland Security shutdown, now at 74 days, complicates the security picture. The June 30 market at 4.5% shows traders still pricing a Trump exit before summer as unlikely.
Trading volume reflects caution. Face value is $40,246 daily, but actual USDC traded is just $2,133. It would take $20,549 to move the odds by 5 points, which means the order books are relatively thick. The largest move was a 1-point spike at 9:49 PM, driven by minor trades rather than any real shift in sentiment.
The assassination attempts and the ongoing shutdown create real uncertainty, but traders are not pricing in a near-term exit. At 4.5¢, a YES share pays 22.2x, but the bet requires believing something forces Trump out within 67 days.
Watch House Speaker Mike Johnson. If he yields to bipartisan pressure to fund the Secret Service, that could stabilize Trump’s position. Any legal or health developments could also shift the trajectory.
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