UK MPs grilled Sir Philip Barton about the Mandelson vetting scandal today. The market on Starmer’s potential resignation by June 30, 2026, is at 39.5% YES, down slightly from 41% yesterday.
The questioning compounds Keir Starmer’s political problems. The market for his departure by the end of December 2026 is at 67.5% YES. The biggest move was a 3-point spike to 45% in the June market, suggesting traders expected more immediate fallout from today’s Commons vote on referring Starmer to the Privileges Committee.
The market saw a face value of $58,520 traded in the last 24 hours, with actual USDC at $29,563. It takes just $906 to move the June market 5 points, which means the order book is thin. The December market is thicker, requiring $6,049 for a similar move, pointing to deeper confidence in a longer-term resolution.
The real question is whether this is genuine pressure or political noise. The scandal raises the probability of Starmer’s early exit given the seniority of the figures involved. A YES share at 40¢ pays $1 if he resigns by June 30, a 2.5x return. Traders need to believe the scandal will escalate quickly to justify that bet.
Watch the Commons vote results closely, along with any statements from Labour figures like Angela Rayner or Wes Streeting. These could signal a shift in party support and move the markets.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 67.5% | — | — | Trade → |
