The UK is enticing expatriates back from the UAE as Iranian strikes on Dubai undermine its safety. Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 7.5% YES, down from 16% a week ago.
Iran’s retaliation on UAE targets, including civilian landmarks, has shifted market perceptions. The probability of Gulf states taking military action against Iran has dropped, with the April 30 market here at 7.5%. The chances of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting here are stagnant at 3.4%, consistent with the current diplomatic impasse.
The market for Kharg Island falling out of Iranian control by June 30 here shows 14.5% YES. The largest price move was a 2-point drop at 7:11 AM, as traders reassessed the likelihood of regime destabilization amid high conflict.
Trading volume is at $35,458 in actual USDC across related markets, with the deepest liquidity in the Kharg Island market. Order book depth is thin: it takes just $7,476 to move odds 5 percentage points.
At 7.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if action occurs by April 30, a 13.33x return. That bet only makes sense if you believe escalation is likely within 10 days.
Watch for announcements from CENTCOM or Gulf states regarding military responses, and any shifts in diplomatic channels, especially involving Oman or Qatar.
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Gulf State Military Action Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
