Iran’s Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i called the US seizure of the Iranian commercial vessel Touska a “war crime.” The statement comes amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Trump announcing the end of military operations against Iran by March 1 have decreased, while the likelihood of Iran striking Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The Trump’s Military Operations Against Iran market shows a lower probability of YES resolution as rhetoric escalates. Mohseni-Eje’i’s “war crime” characterization makes near-term de-escalation unlikely, and the odds of Trump declaring an end to operations have dropped further.
Why it matters
The Iran Military Action market is priced at 100% YES, meaning traders treat an Iranian strike on Israel by April 30 as a certainty. The market resolves in 10 days. Iran’s vow of retaliation keeps this price pinned.
Volume in both markets is low, with $0 in face value traded over the last 24 hours. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete developments. But the rhetoric around the Touska seizure could trigger future volatility, and low liquidity means even small trades could move prices significantly.
What to watch
At 100% YES, a bet on Iran striking Israel pays nothing. A contrarian NO position would be profitable only if unexpected diplomacy shifts the outcome. Traders betting on de-escalation need to see formal talks involving regional intermediaries.
Watch for statements from key US figures like General Dan Caine and Pete Hegseth. Their stance on the ongoing blockade and any shifts in operational language will directly affect pricing in these markets.
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