Turkey’s potential involvement in demining the Strait of Hormuz follows progress in US-Iran negotiations. The odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 are at 10.5% YES, up from 7% a day ago.
The market moved on Turkey’s offer, with a 3.5% increase in odds for a nuclear deal by April 30. Volume hit $7,699 in actual USDC, suggesting cautious optimism among traders. The April 30 market remains thin, with $1,550 needed to move the odds 5 points, leaving room for further swings.
Turkey’s offer has also affected the diplomatic meetings with Iran market, currently at 1.9% YES, unchanged from yesterday but down from 22% a week ago. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete signs of diplomatic engagement. With just 6 days left until resolution, any announcement of formal talks could move this market sharply.
In the Strait of Hormuz traffic market, odds sit at 16.5% YES. The potential for Turkish demining post-deal implies a 15% expected move if the deal materializes, pointing to a moderate chance of normalized traffic by May 15.
Volume in the Hormuz market trades at $36,459 in actual USDC. A $4,658 order could shift odds by 5 points, indicating relatively high liquidity compared to the other two markets.
Turkey’s involvement could be a real de-escalation signal, particularly with Reuters reporting it. At 11¢, a YES share on the nuclear deal pays $1 if resolved, a 9.09x return. For this to pay off, negotiations must progress rapidly within the next six days.
Watch for official announcements from Ankara or Washington about the demining operation. More important: any formal statements confirming a US-Iran deal or diplomatic meetings. Those are the catalysts that will move these markets.
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Us Iran Nuclear Deal April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
