U.S. crude exports reached a record 5.2 million barrels per day amid ongoing disruptions from the Iran war. The market for crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1.3% YES.
The Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted global energy supply chains, boosting U.S. exports. But traders are skeptical about a price surge to record highs. The April 30 market has actually fallen over the week, moving from 2% to 1.3% YES. Volume is at $2,513 in actual USDC, and the market is thin enough that just $695 could shift the price by five points.
WTI Crude Oil’s chances of hitting $160 in April reflect the same skepticism, at 0.7% YES. Face value trading is at $271,280, but real USDC activity is only $2,023.
The broader June prediction for crude reaching $90 shows no active trading. The absence of movement suggests traders are waiting for more concrete signals before committing capital.
At 1.3¢, a YES share on crude’s all-time high pays $1 if realized, a roughly 77-to-1 return that only makes sense if you expect immediate and severe escalation. The low volume across all three crude markets points to broad caution, possibly tied to uncertainty about the reliability of the underlying reporting.
Watch for actions from the U.S. President or OPEC+ members. Changes to supply routes or production levels could move these markets quickly, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz blockade tightens or widens.
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Crude Oil All Time High April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |