TSMC’s profits rose 58%, driven by a surge in AI chip demand from clients like Apple and Nvidia. The market for Nvidia to be the largest company by market cap on June 30 sits at 89.5% YES, up from 85% a week ago.
TSMC’s results point to strong demand for AI chips, which directly supports Nvidia’s revenue outlook and its position atop the market cap leaderboard. The June 30 market has a 75-day horizon with $27,242 in daily face value and $24,517 in actual USDC traded. Moving the market 5 points requires $36,835, suggesting moderate stability against sudden swings.
The April 30 market is nearly settled at 98.8% YES with only 14 days left. Liquidity is much higher: $145,233 daily face value and $143,414 in actual USDC traded. Shifting this market 5 points costs $299,146, making it far more resistant to volatility.
TSMC’s AI chip production numbers feed directly into Nvidia’s revenue pipeline. At 90¢, buying YES on the June 30 market offers a 1.11x return if resolved. The tight spread between the April and June contracts (98.8% vs. 89.5%) prices in roughly 9 points of uncertainty over the additional 60 days, most of it tied to whether AI spending holds through Q2.
Watch Nvidia’s Q2 earnings and any announcements around the Blackwell chip. Jensen Huang’s next moves on major contracts and production timelines will directly affect whether these odds hold or compress further.
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Largest Company End Of June 712| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 89.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 98.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
