Charles Schwab announced direct Bitcoin and Ethereum trading for its 38.9 million clients. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin all-time high by December 31, 2026, is at 16% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
Schwab will compete directly with Robinhood and Coinbase on crypto trading. Bitcoin all-time high by June 30, 2026 sits at 3.4% YES, while September 30, 2026 shows 9.5% YES. The December market saw the biggest move: a 4.5-point increase over the past week, suggesting traders expect a catalyst toward year-end.
Why it matters
The Bitcoin above $62,000 by April 17 market is priced at 99.9% YES, with $9,315 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours. That liquidity matters because thinner markets can see $1,797 shift odds by 5 points.
Schwab adding crypto trading puts a traditional brokerage with $8+ trillion in client assets alongside crypto-native platforms. At 16¢, a YES share on the December 31 market pays $1 if Bitcoin hits a new high, a 6.25x return. That payout depends on whether institutional flows actually accelerate or whether regulatory friction slows adoption.
What to watch
Announcements from BlackRock or Fidelity on crypto products, and any regulatory changes affecting crypto trading access at traditional brokerages.
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Bitcoin All Time High| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30, 2026 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One day after launch | 93.5% | — | — | Trade → |
