Abdul Malik al-Houthi slammed U.S. demands in Iran negotiations as “unreasonable,” and the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, dropped to 15.5% YES, down from 26% yesterday.
The April 22 market saw its largest move, an 8-point decline at 3:32 PM, as traders priced in skepticism about a near-term deal. The April 30 market moved in the opposite direction, rising to 37% from 32% a day ago. Traders appear to be pushing their timeline expectations back rather than abandoning the deal thesis entirely.
The Iranian Demands Trump Agreement market sits at 36% YES, barely changed from 37% yesterday. This market is thin: $319 moves the price 5 points, meaning one large trade could shift odds substantially.
Volume across the peace deal markets hit $621,940 in actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours. The April 22 sub-market requires $20,476 to move it 5 points, making it the deepest and most actively traded of the group. The 8-point single-move drop was the day’s sharpest signal against an imminent resolution.
Al-Houthi is a direct Iranian ally, and his public rejection of U.S. terms makes the already narrow path to a deal by April 22 harder to imagine. At 15.5% YES, a share costs 16¢ and pays $1 if resolved, a 6.25x return. But that requires believing in a breakthrough within 6 days.
Watch for official statements from the US or Iran confirming shifts in negotiation positions. A surprise announcement from the Islamabad talks or a change in tone from Trump could move these markets fast.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 36% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 37% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 69.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 16.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 43.5% | — | — | Trade → |