Prof Pape and Col. MacGregor assert the Iran war is far from over. US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 is at 8% YES.
Israeli ministers reacted with fury to the Lebanon ceasefire Trump announced on Truth Social, and traders are skeptical about a broader deal. The April 21 ceasefire market is at 8%, suggesting traders don’t expect a quick resolution. The April 30 market is more active at 34.5% YES, up from 17% a week ago, which points to some belief in a longer-term diplomatic path.
The May 31 market sits at 51.5% YES, pricing in a gradual resolution rather than a fast one. The term structure is telling: the biggest probability jump falls between April 22 and April 30, meaning traders see potential catalysts in that window specifically.
The ceasefire market had $699,190 in 24-hour USDC volume. The order book is thick, requiring $16,401 to move the price 5 points, which suggests institutional participation. The largest single move was a 4-point spike, consistent with reactive trading around news events.
MacGregor’s skepticism likely comes down to the absence of concrete progress. Trump has led the announcements, but no specific diplomatic engagements or intermediaries have been confirmed. At 8¢, a YES bet pays $1, a 12.5x return. But that requires believing a ceasefire formalization happens within five days.
Watch for movement from Oman or Qatar, or announcements of scheduled talks. Trump’s next Truth Social post could swing the market if it includes specific diplomatic language or names intermediaries.
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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 33.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 65% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 33.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 64.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
