Operation Epic Fury has given President Trump leverage in the Middle East, pushing for a Trump-Xi meeting in mid-May. The odds of Trump visiting China by May 31 have jumped to 79.5% YES, up from 72% last week.
The May 31 sub-market has seen a sharp rise in confidence, with traders pricing in the planned summit as a catalyst. The April 30 market sits nearly dormant at 0.9% YES, consistent with the improbability of an earlier visit. The June 30 market has edged up to 85.5% YES, showing sustained expectations for a late spring summit.
Trading volumes tell the story clearly. The May 31 market moves $15,843 in actual USDC daily, suggesting strong conviction, with a notable 1-point drop in trading activity at 2:48 AM. The cost to move the price by 5 points is $10,583, pointing to a relatively stable order book. The April 30 market, by contrast, trades only $710 in actual USDC daily, meaning a single large order could swing it easily.
At 79.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the visit occurs by May 31, a 1.19x return. This bet depends on the summit proceeding without geopolitical or domestic disruptions. Official confirmations from both the White House and Chinese state media would likely push the price higher.
Watch for Karoline Leavitt’s briefings and any updates from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Changes in the summit’s status could move these markets fast.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 79.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 85.5% | — | — | Trade → |
