Trump stated he trusts Iran and announced plans for talks in Islamabad. The ceasefire extension by April 21 market now sits at 78% YES.
Trump’s statement pushed the ceasefire extension market from 70% a week ago to 78%, as traders price in a longer truce following Trump’s expressed trust. The permanent peace deal by April 22 market also moved up to 28.5% YES, though skepticism remains.
The April 21 ceasefire extension market trades $89,960 in USDC daily, and it takes $10,863 to move the price 5 points, meaning the market is relatively stable absent major news. The longer-dated peace deal markets show larger moves: April 30 is at 45.5% and May 31 at 65.5%, which suggests traders expect meaningful developments over the next month.
Trump’s words matter, but Islamabad talks have collapsed before. A YES share in the ceasefire market at 78¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 1.21x return. The better risk-reward is further out: buying YES on the June 30 peace deal at 75¢ offers a 1.50x potential payout.
Watch for announcements from Trump or Secretary of State Rubio confirming any agreement. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif’s tweets could also signal progress or setbacks. If official statements confirm the extension or a deal, expect sharp market moves.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 78% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 28.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 45.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 75% | — | — | Trade → |