Iran denied Trump’s suggestion of a uranium handover to secure peace. The market for Iran surrendering its stockpile by April 30 is at 45% YES, up from 25% yesterday but likely to face pressure.
The rejection has shifted confidence across multiple markets. Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 sits at 44.4% YES, up from 35% but still weighted toward skepticism. The May 31 market for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium is at 29.0% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.
Total USDC traded across these markets is $41,397. The April 30 uranium surrender market saw a 13-point spike driven by concentrated trading interest. At $184 to move 5 percentage points, this market remains thin enough that single large trades can meaningfully shift the odds.
Iran’s denial points to a diplomatic impasse with no obvious path to quick resolution. The current price of 33.4¢ on the April 30 surrender market means a YES share pays $1 if Iran agrees to surrender its stockpile, a potential 3x return. That bet requires believing in a major diplomatic breakthrough within two weeks.
Watch for statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Any shift in Tehran’s position or mediator announcements from Pakistan could move these markets fast.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 44.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 45% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 56.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 29% | — | — | Trade → |
