Trump’s tariff threat on the UK over its digital services tax arrives as Iranian demands for US concessions are reportedly being met. The chance of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is at 10% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
The “Trump agreement” market sits at 10% YES across multiple sub-markets. This market dropped 2 points at 12:59 PM, a sign traders doubt a quick resolution. The UK tariff threat may overshadow any potential de-escalation with Iran, keeping odds low.
The crude oil all-time high market for April 30 is at 3.5% YES, barely up from 3% a week ago. Trump’s comments about Iran cutting funding for Hezbollah didn’t move the needle — any de-escalation in the Middle East would typically reduce oil price spikes, not increase them.
Daily trading volume in the “Trump agreement” market is $1,830, with just $461 needed to move the price 5 points. This is a thin market where minor news can swing odds. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point drop, meaning traders are cautious but not placing large bets.
Trump’s statements may signal de-escalation with Iran, but renewed US-UK tensions muddy the picture. The thin liquidity suggests traders want concrete actions, like unfreezing Iranian assets or definitive tariff moves, before changing positions. At 10¢, a YES share pays out $1 if Trump agrees to sanctions relief, a 10x return. The bet requires believing a substantial diplomatic breakthrough happens in the next few days.
Watch for White House statements or any confirmation of asset unfreezing, which could shift odds fast. The UK’s response to Trump’s tariff threats also matters — a firm stance could further strain US-UK relations and complicate the diplomatic picture.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 10% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 74% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 82.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.3% | — | — | Trade → |
