The U.S. military is preparing plans to strike Iran’s Strait of Hormuz defenses if the ceasefire fails. The Hormuz blockade lift market dropped to 59.5% YES, down from 77% yesterday, as traders price in a higher risk of military escalation.
That 17.5-point drop signals traders are significantly less confident in a blockade lift by May 31, 2026 given the strike planning reports. The Kharg Island control market remains stable, suggesting traders view the strike plans as affecting the blockade timeline without directly changing the outlook for Iranian control of the island.
U.S. plans reportedly include targeting Iranian military and energy infrastructure, with “dynamic targeting” of Iran’s defenses and high-profile targets like IRGC’s Ahmad Vahidi. This raises the probability that the blockade stays in place rather than being lifted through diplomatic resolution.
Trading volume on the Hormuz blockade market was $32,536 in USDC, with $7,404 order book depth to move the price 5 percentage points, a moderately liquid market. The largest single move was a 3-point drop, showing swift trader reaction to the news. At 59.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump lifts the blockade by May 31, a 1.68x return. The core question for traders: does this escalation path make a diplomatic resolution and blockade lift materially less likely, or is it leverage toward one?
Watch for Trump’s next statement on social media or through official channels. Any mention of further strikes or diplomatic moves could shift these odds quickly.
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Kharg Island No Longer Under Iranian Control March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.2% | -0.1¢ | $332K | Trade → |
| June 30 | 15.5% | 0.0¢ | $52K | Trade → |
| May 31 | 12.5% | 0.0¢ | $153K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 60.5% | +0.5¢ | $94K | Trade → |
