Trump’s threats to target Iran’s power plants and bridges have pushed odds of him announcing the end of military operations against Iran by April 21 down to 8.5% YES, a drop from 38% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The April 21 contract sits at 8.5%, an 18-point drop within 24 hours, likely triggered by Trump’s aggressive rhetoric about striking civilian infrastructure. Traders are pricing in continued tensions rather than resolution.
Why it matters
The term structure across related markets shows a gap. The June 30 uranium surrender market is at 58% YES, while December 31 is at 70% YES. Short-term resolution looks unlikely to traders, but longer-term diplomatic outcomes still carry majority probability.
The Iran Operations Announcements market trades $924K in daily face value but only $230K in actual USDC, making it vulnerable to large individual orders. The biggest single move was an 18-point spike. The market is active but thin enough that a few significant trades can move prices without reflecting broad consensus.
What to watch
Trump’s threats to target civilian infrastructure directly recalibrate trader expectations. At 8.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if military operations end by April 21, a 6.25x return. Resolution by that date would require rapid diplomatic breakthroughs that look improbable given the current trajectory. Watch for formal statements from the Pentagon or White House, and track Trump’s foreign policy speeches and social media posts for any shift toward de-escalation.
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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 37.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 69.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 52.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
