Google is developing AI chips to compete with Nvidia, and the market for Nvidia holding the largest company by market cap on June 30 has dropped to 86.5% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
The June 30 market has 73 days left. The market saw $26,379 in combined 24-hour USDC volume, with $9,381 in order book depth required to move the price 5 points. The largest single move was a 4-point spike yesterday afternoon.
Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) already train massive models like Gemini. Custom AI chips from Google target Nvidia’s core GPU business directly, and vertical integration gives Google the ability to build hardware specifically for its own AI workloads. If Google’s chips gain traction with outside customers, Nvidia’s share of the AI training market could shrink, making it harder to hold the market cap lead over competitors like Apple and Microsoft.
At 87.5¢, buying NO pays $1 if Nvidia is not the largest company by market cap on June 30, a 7.7x return. That bet requires believing Google’s chip push will meaningfully disrupt Nvidia’s trajectory within 73 days.
Watch for Google announcements on chip performance benchmarks and partnerships with major AI firms. Large-scale adoption outside Google’s own infrastructure would be the clearest signal of real competitive pressure on Nvidia.
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Largest Company End Of June 712| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 87.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
