Trump warned he will resume airstrikes if the US-Iran ceasefire doesn’t produce a deal by April 21. The ceasefire extension market sits at 75% YES, up from 70% a week ago.
With 5 days left, the threat has moved several related markets. The permanent peace deal market is at 30.5% YES, up slightly from 12% a week ago, showing persistent skepticism about a long-term resolution. Odds of Trump declaring the ceasefire over by April 21 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 30% a week ago.
The ceasefire extension market trades $89,960 in USDC daily, with a notable 8-point drop recorded at 6:06 PM. The peace deal market trades $267,520/day in USDC, with the largest move being a 4-point spike. The ceasefire end market is thin at $5,810/day, where just $1,700 can move it 5 points.
Trump’s statement reads more as bluster than policy shift. His threats have historically moved markets, but the real test is concrete action: resumed military strikes or formal diplomatic announcements. At 8¢, a YES share on ceasefire end would return a 12.5x payout if he follows through. Anyone buying that contract is betting diplomacy collapses within 5 days.
Watch for CENTCOM briefings or statements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry. Any confirmation of resumed strikes would reprice all three markets immediately.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 75% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 30.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
