Reports of increased repression and economic deterioration in Iran continue after the ceasefire. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 are at 4% YES, up slightly from 3.9% a week ago.
Market reaction
The Iranian regime fall market prices regime change as unlikely in the near term. The order book requires $21,504 to move the price by 5 points, which means positions are relatively firm on both sides.
The Reza Pahlavi entry into Iran market has moved in the opposite direction: June 30 odds sit at 4.5% YES, down from 6% a day ago. The December 31 contract is at 12.5% YES, pricing in some possibility of a return in the second half of the year, though no new developments around Pahlavi’s movements support the number.
Why it matters
Repression and economic pressure are the two most common preconditions for regime instability, but Iran’s security apparatus, particularly the IRGC, has so far contained domestic unrest. The 4% odds reflect this: traders see the ingredients for instability without the trigger. A leadership vacuum by end of 2026 becomes more plausible if economic conditions worsen further, but specific catalysts are needed to move odds meaningfully.
What to watch
IRGC defections, large-scale protests, or direct international intervention would be the clearest signals of shifting odds. Actions by the Assembly of Experts or high-profile defections from the regime’s inner circle could also move these markets.
Trade details
A YES share in the regime fall market at 4¢ pays $1 if there’s a regime change by May 31, a 25x return. That bet requires believing significant unrest will erupt within the next 45 days.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
