A senior Gulf official says Trump is signaling potential concessions in Iran talks. The probability of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief this April is at 43%, up from 34% yesterday.
Market reaction
The Iranian Demands Trump Agreement market rose to 43%, up from 28% last week. Daily volume is $1,975 in USDC. The market is thin, requiring just $330 to move it 5 points, which makes it prone to sharp swings.
The US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market has also moved. Odds for a deal by April 22 sit at 25.5%, up from 12% a week ago. This market is much thicker: $711,138 in daily USDC volume, with $16,312 needed for a 5-point shift. The bigger bets are on longer timelines, with the June 30 sub-market at 66.5%.
Why it matters
At 43¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump agrees to oil sanction relief, a 2.78x return. That bet requires believing Trump will reverse his stance within the month. The source is tier-2, but it gives traders a concrete reason to reassess the odds of de-escalation.
What to watch
Official statements from Trump or the White House on sanction relief would move these markets fast. Any confirmation or denial from those sources changes the calculus directly.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 43% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 25% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 40% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 54.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 41.1% | — | — | Trade → |
