Cerebras and Rebellions have closed record funding rounds, but Polymarket’s odds on Nvidia being the largest company by market cap on June 30 have actually risen to 84.5% YES, up from 86% a week ago.
Market reaction
Cerebras is now valued at $23.1B and Rebellions at $2.34B after their respective raises. The June 30 market is priced at 84.5% YES with 75 days remaining and $37,689 in order book depth needed to move the price 5 percentage points. Daily volume is $4,432 in USDC. The largest single price move during this period was a 1-point drop.
Why it matters
The funding rounds reflect efforts by companies and governments to reduce dependence on Nvidia for AI compute. If Cerebras or Rebellions gain meaningful market share, that could pressure Nvidia’s valuation. But Nvidia’s stock has risen 18% during the recent AI boom, and the prediction market shows no sign of pricing in competitive risk. The odds moved in Nvidia’s favor even as its competitors raised record capital.
What to watch
Nvidia’s next earnings call and any comments from Jensen Huang on competitive positioning. Any major customer wins, partnerships, or product announcements from Cerebras or Rebellions could shift sentiment. Buying YES at 84.5¢ pays $1 if Nvidia holds the top spot, a 1.12x return. For Nvidia to lose its position, rivals would need to announce significant breakthroughs soon.
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Largest Company End Of June 712| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 84.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
