President Trump has replaced Secretary of the Navy John Phelan with Hung Cao, and the odds of Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 have fallen to 74%, down from 82% yesterday.
Market reaction
Traders read the leadership change as a signal the blockade may persist. The 74% YES odds for lifting the blockade by May 31 are down from 82% a day ago. The largest single move was a 3-point drop. Trading volume is $27,582, with $8,549 in order book depth needed to move the price 5 points.
Why it matters
Replacing Phelan with Cao signals a possible escalation in U.S. naval command, which traders interpret as reducing the likelihood of a quick resolution. At 74¢ for a YES payout, the market prices in real skepticism about de-escalation before May 31. Last week, odds dropped on similar news around Iran’s control of the Strait.
What to watch
The main signals are statements from the White House or Pentagon, particularly any Trump interactions with regional actors like Pakistan. Whether Cao’s appointment brings a strategic shift in naval posture will matter for where this market moves next.
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Trump Renames Straight Of Hormuz To Strait Of Trump May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 74% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
