President Donald Trump claims Iran’s leadership is too disrupted to negotiate effectively. A permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30 sits at 10% YES, down from 18% yesterday.
Trump’s comments about chaos within Iran’s leadership following US and Israeli strikes drove a sharp selloff across all peace deal contracts. The April 30 market dropped 8 points. The May 31 market now trades at 37.5% YES, down from 52% yesterday, meaning traders see a slim chance for progress even by the end of May.
The term structure shows the biggest jump between April 30 and May 31, a 28-point increase, suggesting traders expect any potential breakthrough to come after April at the earliest. The June 30 market remains the highest at 57.5% YES, though it also fell from 64% yesterday.
USDC volume over the last 24 hours was $433,823, with the largest move being a 4-point spike in the April 30 contract. It costs $27,970 to move the April 30 market by 5 points, enough depth to absorb small orders but not enough to resist a large directional bet.
Without a coherent negotiating partner in Iran, traders are pricing a deal as unlikely in the near term. At 10¢, buying YES for a peace deal by April 30 offers a 10x return, a price that implies traders don’t believe a swift resolution is coming.
Watch for developments from Pakistani mediators or announcements from Trump’s administration that could provide a timeline or path to negotiations. Without those signals, expect continued volatility and low prices across these contracts.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 57.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 14% | — | — | Trade → |
