Trump asserts US control of the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran’s seizure of two container ships. The odds of US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 sit at 6% YES.
Trump’s statement hasn’t moved the needle on US Navy escorts through the strait. The market holds at 6% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago but down from 16% a week ago. Traders aren’t convinced US naval escorts are coming. The Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement market is more active at 71.5% YES, down from 77% yesterday.
The blockade market at 71.5% YES means traders still see a better-than-even chance of Trump lifting the blockade by May 31. But the 3-point drop at 8:37 PM shows some skepticism building. Volume at $32,536 in USDC traded and order book depth requiring $7,404 to move 5 points point to solid institutional interest.
Trump’s claims of control may be more about narrative than action. Traders clearly want concrete steps before committing to the idea of US naval escorts. Given the Pentagon’s mine clearance timeline and the ongoing stalemate, markets are pricing in prolonged tensions over swift resolution. Buying YES at 6¢ pays $1 if escorts happen, a 16.7x return, but you’d need a major policy shift in less than a week for that to pay off.
Watch for Trump’s social media posts signaling a change in strategy, CENTCOM updates on mine clearance, and potential diplomatic moves from Pakistan or other intermediaries. Any of these could shift odds quickly.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 69.5% | — | — | Trade → |
