Trump and Iran remain at loggerheads over the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump maintaining a blockade and Iran retaliating with military control. The odds of Trump announcing the blockade’s lift by May 31 are at 82%, down from 90% yesterday.
Traders are responding to escalating tensions and military actions. For the April 19 market, odds have collapsed to 8%, down from 28% just 24 hours ago. Traders see almost no chance of a quick resolution. The April 30 meeting with Iran market sits at 10.6%, down from 22%.
The volume tells the story. Actual USDC traded across markets: $29,602 in the last 24 hours. The Hormuz blockade markets are moving with a relatively low cost to shift odds — $1,419 to move 5 points for May 31 — which means they’re sensitive to new information. The largest price move was a 5-point drop at 12:19 PM, suggesting traders are reacting sharply.
Trump’s blockade and Iran’s military maneuvers point to a prolonged standoff. Traders are recalibrating fast, growing more skeptical about any near-term resolution. Buying YES at 82¢ offers modest upside, but the risk of further declines is high without a diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or a shift in Iran’s posture. Trump’s tweets or evidence of back-channel negotiations could move these odds quickly. The next key date is Wednesday, with the ceasefire deadline approaching.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 82% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 10.6% | — | — | Trade → |