Iran’s parliament speaker said “major differences” remain with the US after failed Islamabad peace talks. The US-Iran peace deal by April 22 market sits at 19.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 22 contract halved on the news, with traders pricing in little chance of progress before the deadline in four days. The longer-term April 30 odds fell to 37.5% from 61%, showing skepticism about a quick recovery. The June 30 contract is more stable at 67.5%, meaning traders still think a deal by summer is more likely than not.
In the Iran uranium surrender market, odds for Iran agreeing to give up its enriched uranium by April 30 halved to 31.2%. The largest single drop, 12 points, came late morning. The December 31 contract also fell, down to 70% from 80%, as the failed talks weighed on nuclear negotiation expectations broadly.
Why it matters
Iran’s insistence on discrepancies over nuclear issues and regional security guarantees kills short-term optimism. The US-Iran peace talks market trades $1,644,301 in USDC daily. Moving the April 22 odds 5 points requires about $9,404 in capital, so the halving reflects real conviction, not thin-market noise. The largest single price move was a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM.
What to watch
At 19¢, a YES share for an April 22 peace deal pays $1 if it resolves, a 5.13x return. That bet only makes sense if you expect a sudden diplomatic breakthrough in the next four days. Watch for official statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi or US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff that might soften the rhetoric or propose new mediation channels.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 19.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 59% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 67.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 31.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 43.5% | — | — | Trade → |
