Trump hinted at airstrikes on Iran after seizing a ship carrying Chinese “gifts.” The odds for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31 are at 6.5% YES.
The declaration of war by April 30 sits at 0.7% YES. The December 31 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 8% a week ago, reflecting a moderate expectation of escalation but not a formal war.
Meanwhile, the Trump visit to China by May 31 market holds at 79% YES, and the June 30 market at 85.5% YES. Traders largely expect diplomatic engagement with China to continue regardless of the Iran tensions.
The war declaration market has daily USDC volume at $701, a sign of broad skepticism about a formal declaration. The cost to move the market by 5 points is just $1,530, meaning any concrete development could cause sharp price swings.
A YES share on war declaration by December 31 is priced at 6¢, with a 16.7x return if it resolves YES. That payout prices in the gap between heated rhetoric and an actual congressional war declaration.
Watch for formal announcements from Congress or the White House on military action. Trump’s next moves and any response from Xi Jinping will directly affect both markets.
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Will Trump Visit China| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 79% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 84.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
