CENTCOM ordered 28 vessels to turn around or return to Iran, and the Polymarket crude oil market for June now prices crude reaching $90 at 71% YES.
The crude oil market for June reflects traders pricing in supply disruption from the naval blockade. With 71 days until the end of June, the 71% YES probability for crude hitting $90 shows the market expects geopolitical risk to push prices higher.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic market is moving in the same direction. The directive for vessels to return to Iran points to continued disruptions, and odds for traffic normalization by May 31 are falling. With 41 days left, the market is betting against a quick resolution.
There are no significant volume changes in either market. The Strait of Hormuz market has no recorded volume. For crude, a YES share at current prices offers a large return if the blockade continues to restrict supply.
The CENTCOM directive is a direct escalation, signaling active enforcement of the blockade and raising the probability of sustained supply disruptions. The geopolitical risk premium on oil stays high. A bet on crude reaching $90 by June depends on whether these tensions persist or worsen.
Watch for statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister or Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister. Their responses to the blockade could move oil prices and shift market odds.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
