Trump’s reluctance to send US troops to Kharg Island over casualty concerns has cooled expectations of a takeover. Control by April 30 sits at 7.3% YES, down from 8% a week ago.
Market reaction
The Kharg Island control by April 30 market has pulled back sharply, with traders betting heavily against a swift US occupation at 7.3%. The June 30 contract holds at 20.5% YES, pricing in a longer window for possible action.
In the Kharg Island oil terminal attack market, odds have also dropped, now at 13% YES. Traders appear to expect continued US restraint rather than direct strikes on the terminal.
Why it matters
Combined USDC volume across these markets is $43,847. The largest recent price move was a 2-point spike in the May 31 market, likely driven by smaller trades rather than a real shift in outlook. Trump’s stance points toward economic pressure over military escalation, which, if sustained, keeps all these contracts pinned near their lows.
What to watch
At 7.3%, buying YES for April 30 control pays 27.8x, but that requires a sudden strategic reversal or an unforeseen trigger. CENTCOM announcements, IRGC movements, or changes in US military deployment near the Persian Gulf could move these odds quickly in either direction.
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Kharg Island No Longer Under Iranian Control March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 20.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 13% | — | — | Trade → |
