Trump ordered the U.S. military to maintain its blockade on Iranian ports, with no imminent truce break in sight. The ceasefire breach by April 21 market sits at 100% YES.
Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire while keeping the blockade in place is moving related markets in different directions. The ceasefire breach market is unchanged at 100.0%, with the deadline tomorrow. The blockade lift market moved to 82.5% YES, up from 76% a day ago.
That 6.5-point jump in the blockade lift market shows traders recalibrating as diplomatic talks stall. With 41 days left until resolution, the market is trading $18,073 in USDC daily. The order book requires $9,244 to move five points, which points to moderate liquidity. The largest price move was a three-point spike at 5:08 PM, likely a reaction to recent diplomatic developments.
Trump’s choice to maintain pressure without escalating to airstrikes points toward a negotiation-leverage strategy rather than immediate conflict. Still, with blockade-lift odds climbing rather than falling, traders appear to price in a prolonged standoff that eventually resolves before the deadline. At 82¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade is lifted by May 31, a 1.22x return.
Watch for announcements from U.S. negotiators in Pakistan and Trump’s posts on Truth Social. Either could move these odds quickly.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 83% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 3.8% | — | — | Trade → |
