President Trump confirmed a three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. The Trump endorsement market sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The ceasefire market for Israel x Hezbollah by April 30 is at 100% YES. With the market set to resolve in 6 days, traders clearly expect the extension to hold through the month.
The June 30 market is also at 100% YES, with no price differential between the April and June resolution dates. Traders expect either ongoing compliance or further extensions. The Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive market is at 100% YES as well.
Why it matters
All four markets show zero reported volume. Traders are sitting on their positions because at 100% YES, a share pays $1 with no upside remaining. The only possible move from here is down, if the truce collapses. Anyone betting on a breakdown would need renewed hostilities or a diplomatic failure to profit.
The ceasefire remains fragile given Hezbollah’s ongoing provocations, but the uniform 100% pricing across all resolution dates shows traders see no meaningful risk of collapse in the near term.
What to watch
Hezbollah’s actions on the ground, any statements from Israeli or U.S. officials about the ceasefire’s status, the IDF’s response to provocations, and Trump’s further diplomatic engagement with the parties involved.
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Will Trump Endorse An Israeli Ceasefire In Lebanon April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
