Trump announced on Truth Social that the US will obtain Iran’s enriched uranium. The market for US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 sits at 24.5% YES.
Market reaction
The statement triggered sharp moves across several related markets. Odds for Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium by April 30 rose to 65.7% YES, up from 25% yesterday. The December 31 market jumped to 79.5% YES from 32% last week. Odds for Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 moved up modestly to 47.9% YES.
Why it matters
The May 31 uranium transfer market trades $35,523 in USDC daily, with $33,304 in depth to shift 5 points. The latest 2-point spike came at 3:07 AM. The April 30 surrender market, by contrast, requires only $184 to move 5 points, and its 13-point surge at 4:52 PM likely reflects speculative positioning in a thin book.
What to watch
Trump’s statement doesn’t guarantee uranium transfer. With talks ongoing, his comments could be positioning rather than confirmation of a deal. A YES share at 24.5¢ pays $1 if the US obtains the uranium, a 5.13x return. That bet requires a diplomatic breakthrough within 45 days.
The next catalysts are IAEA reports on uranium stockpile changes or official US announcements confirming or denying Trump’s claim.
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Us Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 65.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 79.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 75.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 47.9% | — | — | Trade → |
