Two ceasefires and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz point to a possible thaw in US-Iran tensions. The market for a permanent peace deal by April 22 is at 40.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
The ongoing US-Iran ceasefire, combined with the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire starting April 17, has traders watching for an extension beyond April 21. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would relieve some economic pressure on Iran. The market for Trump announcing the end of the US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 has dropped to 8% YES, down from 30% seven days ago.
With six days until the April 22 resolution, traders are increasingly betting on a diplomatic breakthrough. The Iran peace deal market is moving at high volume: $1.5M face value and $268K in actual USDC daily. The largest recent move was a 4-point spike as traders priced in anticipated progress in talks.
BBC reporting suggests genuine de-escalation, not just posturing. A YES share at 40.5¢ would pay $1 if a deal is reached, a 6.67x return. To justify that bet, you’d need to believe a real diplomatic shift is possible within the next 6 days.
Watch for Trump or Iranian officials confirming talks or a tentative agreement. Any announcement of a venue or intermediary would move these markets sharply.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
